Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Why Doesn’t Anybody Still Understand Moneyball?

From Slate’s How To Fake Your Way Through The Postseason by Justin Peters:

A's talking points: Odds are you've heard of Michael Lewis' Moneyball, which documented GM Billy Beane's strategies for winning with a low payroll: Draft college players and emphasize on-base percentage. Old-school baseball analyst Joe Morgan will send you flowers if you note that Beane's 2002 draft has produced a mere two major leaguers, and only four A's regulars have OBPs over .360. If someone says you're using selective evidence, shut them up by shouting, "Oakland's made the playoffs five times since 2000 and hasn't won squat. Five bucks says Billy Beane's shit doesn't work in the playoffs this year, either."


Congratulations, idiot: you have just completely missed the point of all 320 of Michael Lewis’s pages. For the last time, Lewis wrote in his book that Billy Beane was able to field a winning team with a low payroll by finding players who are undervalued by the rest of baseball. That used to be college players and OBP, but thanks in part to everybody reading Moneyball but nobody understanding it, that is no longer true:

People who have the highest on-base percentage are the highest-paid players in the league. We can’t find it where it’s undervalued anymore. There are no bargains any more in that area.

The sort of team we put together is probably going to be dissimilar to others. When everyone else is zigging, we’re going to zag. We changed dramatically over the last few years. People accused us of being a slow-pitch softball team: Get men on base and have someone hit a three-run homer. But we’ve become more defensive-oriented.

-- Billy Beane

God I hate you.

PS - The New York Yankees have made the postseason six times since 2000, and haven't won squat yet, either.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home