Even More on the MVP

cont. from previous post

There you go -- Albert Pujols provided the largest percentage of his team's Win Shares, second-most percentage of Runs and RBIs, and all while striking out only 50 times.* That's why I expected him to win the MVP.

If I were selecting the MVP, it would have been Beltran, because his fantastic production came out of such a premier defensive position, which is reflected in his WSAB. But the fact that he was on such a good team really hurt him with the voters. It's easier to shine when you're surrounded by a bunch of dim bulbs.

A couple years ago, though, the boys at BP came up with a formula to predict who would win the MVP. Not necessarily who should win, but who, based on voting patterns from the past, would be most likely to win. Players get points for various accomplishments, like having a .300 BA, or playing an up-the-middle defensive position (C, 2B, SS, or CF). We'll call these MVP points.

And there you have it. Ryan Howard, your 2006 NL MVP. It should have been obvious.

* Which, by the way, is freaking amazing. Power hitters tend to strike out a lot, because they're swinging for the fences. Beltran is the only other guy on this list who struck out less than 100 times, and he struck out 49 times more than Pujols. Incredible. Pujols strikes out only once every three games! Crazy.