NL Central

I was hanging out recently at my favorite bar, Schittzen Giggles, wondering who's going to win the division in the NL Central. Milwaukee and the Chicago Cubs are tied up at 71-68, with St. Louis only a game back at 69-68. Man, the NL Central is a crapfest. Winning this division is like winning the retard spelling bee, or being the world's strongest midget.

Anyway, consulting the ol' BP Playoff Odds Report, it looks like the Cubbies have a slight edge over the Brewers, with Milwaukee predicted to win the division 37% of the time to Chicago's 44%. They've got the same record, why is Chicago 7% more likely to make the playoffs (we all know nobody from the Central is winning the Wild Card)? St. Louis, by the way, still has an outside shot at 17%.

The answer, of course, is the strength of their remaining schedules:

Cubs: .454
Milwaukee: .481
St. Louis: .492

The difference in the strength of each team's remaining schedule is largely accounted for by the fact that, of the three NL Central contenders, only St. Louis has games remaining against both of the others. The Cubs have five games against the Cards, but none against the Brewers; while the Brewers have three against the Cards as well. The Cubs and Brewers basically get to beat up on Cincy, Pittsburg and Florida for the rest of the season, with the exception that the Brewers will play three against the Braves (which is why their remaining schedule is .481 instead of a cakewalk .454).

Of course, the flip side of this is that St. Louis controls their own destiny more than Milwaukee or Chicago. I honestly have no idea who's going to take this division. I guess it'd make my 91 year-old grandpa happy if the Cubs did. On the other hand, if the Cubs actually won a World Series, it would probably kill him. The last time the Cubs were world champions was eight years before he was born.