Sosa (Again)

So over the weekend, Gary Cohen remarked that he was now "Everyday" Jorge Sosa, because he'd pitched in six of the last seven games. And pitched pretty well, too. So I decided to take a look at how Sosa, who I don't think is a very good pitcher, has fared since moving to the bullpen to make way for Brian Lawrence.



The short answer is, great! He's got a 1.69 ERA since he moved to the bullpen. But how's he doing it? Pitching in short bursts, can he cut loose and start striking people out? Well, here's your answer. Of course, after looking at this data, I realized what a shitty way this is to present it.



Below you'll find Sosa's K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and K/BB rates presented as a pecentage above or below NL average, both as a starter and a reliever. For example, as a starter, Sosa strikes out 5.2 batters per nine innings, about 30% below average in the NL.

As a starter, Sosa was below average in strikeouts per nine, and also strikeout-to-walk ratio, but average in walks per nine and HR per nine. As a reliever, Sosa actually has an even worse strikeout rate, an average strikeout-to-walk ratio, but is a stellar 48% better than average in walks per nine, and is infinitely better in HR per nine, having given up none.

So basically, he's striking out fewer batters than before, walking even fewer, and not giving up any home runs. I'm not sure this is sustainable, even pitching out of the bullpen. Of course, the usual small sample size caveats do apply -- he's only pitched 16 innings out of the 'pen.





Having said that, I actually do like using Sosa out of the bullpen. I suspect that his success there has more to do with the fact that he's faced 42 right-handed batters, who have batted .201/.243/.294 against him this year, and only 16 lefties, who've batted .303/.381/.491. Sosa is a ROOGY (Right-handed One Out GuY).

And PS, how can a guy who throws 95 mph strike out so few batters?

Back Again! And What Happened To Oliver Perez

Jeez, I'm out of it for a little while to get married and everybody’s got delusions of grandeur. So at 6-3 with a 2.69 ERA, Ollie’s starting to look more like the good 2004 version, than the chump that showed up in 2005 and 2006. What gives?

There’s a bunch more stuff I could have put in there, like how the percentage of Oliver’s fly balls that turn into home runs is back to normal, or how he’s generating more infield flies (an infield fly ball is almost always an out, and some saber-nerds think getting weak pop-ups is a repeatable skill) but there’s really only one story: walks. Specifically, Oliver’s strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Since he came into the league, he’s always struck guys out at a pretty good pace, even during the bad years in 2005 and 2006. Striking out six batters per nine innings is OK. Seven is good, eight is really good, and 9 Ks per nine is dominant. He’s just eliminated the walks.

In baseball, as in life, there’s more than one way to skin a cat; so it’s OK if a pitcher doesn’t strike many people out, as long as he also doesn’t walk very many, either (Greg Maddux). It’s also OK to walk a bunch of guys, as long as you strike out a ton of ‘em, too (Nolan Ryan). A good measure of a pitcher’s overall ability is the strikeout-to-walk ratio, or K/BB. Average pitchers strike out two for every one they walk. Anything above 2-to-1 is good; 3-to-1 is dominant. Perez is still striking guys out at about the same rate – he’s just cut way down on the walks.

Now, what exactly the Jacket has done to make this happen, I have no idea. Some of Perez’s other numbers, which I didn’t include above because they’re both boring and complicated, indicate that he’s maybe been a little lucky. His Fielding Independent Pitching stats suggest that we should expect him to have an ERA around 3.91. And of course, the usual small-sample-size caveats still apply. But still, if you’d told me during the off-season that Perez would end the year with an ERA under four, I’d have been ecstatic.

What do we learn from all this? Once again, the Pirates are the worst-run organization in all of baseball.