The Mets Rotation

Lots of writers are predicting the Phillies, or even the Braves to win the NL East this year; which seems kind of crazy, given that the Mets went to town on the division in 2006 like a fat kid with a cupcake. The 2007 Mets, Braves, and Phillies all ought to have great offenses; but the nobody thinks that the Mets starting rotation will be able to hold up.

Granted, the Mets are relying heavily on two 40-year-olds at the front of the rotation in El Duque and Glavine. On the other hand, they aren't relying on Steve Trachsel and Lima Time, either. I think that the Met rotation is going to surprise a lot of people this season, and could end up, if not a strength exactly, then at least as good as last year. Take a look at this:


Those are a combo of Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections for what the Mets starters are going to do this year, along with the Marcel projection for their ERAs. The Mets five starters project to be about the same as last year's starters, or maybe even a little bit better (I'm more bullish on Maine, Pelfrey, and especially Perez than either Marcel or PECOTA, but I digress). Yeah, we'll have to use the Sele's, Parks, and (God help us) Sosas more than I'd like, but there's no way the rotation is going to be as bad as everybody thinks it is.