Not Quite Happy With That Last One . . .

. . . so here it is again:

This time, I used PECOTA projections for the whole thing. I used Marcel ERAs earlier because I am an idiot and couldn't find the PECOTA ERA projections. Anyway, the results are even more favorable.

Let's assume that all of these guys meet their projections; or at least, any variation one way is cancelled out by some variation the other way. For example, maybe El Duque gets hurt (knock wood) and can't even make his 23 projected starts -- but Perez is slightly better than expected and makes 20 instead of 16. You get the picture.

Anyway, assuming that these five starters can pitch somewhat close to their projection, all they'd need to do to duplicate last year's starters is find 50 starts and 240 innings worth of 5.66 ERA. We'd need to find two guys to make 25 starts a piece, who can give up three runs over four and two-thirds innings. That shouldn't be too hard -- that's like a couple of Steve Trachsels.