Postseason Odds Report

I love this god damn thing. I've been torturing myself by consulting the Mets plummeting odds of making the playoffs every day for the last few weeks. Anyway, here's the Mets season, graphically presented, since April 10th.

On the off chance that you read this and you don't know what I'm talking about (hi honey), this clever chap over at Baseball Prospectus has looked at the current standings each day, and then calculated the odds of each team making the postseason by simulating all of the remaining games for each team a million times, and recording the number of times out of that million each team would make the playoffs, either by winning their division or the Wild Card.

Since peaking at a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs on September 14th -- that's right, just two weeks ago -- the Mets chances of making the postseason have taken a nose dive. On the other hand, they do still have almost a 60% chance of getting making it. It's 50-50 at this point whether the Mets or Phillies will win the NL East, but there's a small -- around 9% -- chance that the Mets could lose the division to the Phillies but still take the Wild Card.