Playoff Odds

I've talked before about how fascinated I am by this, but that magnificent bastard Clay Davenport's done it again, this time for the playoffs. Here are Clay's estimated chances for each team to win the World Series.

Wow. God's own Rockies, the current favorite to win the World Series. Who'da thunk it? Of course, these odds don't really mean anything. These playoff odds are all log5's and math and stuff, not baseball. If you don't buy into any of that, these odds may as well be pulled straight out of Davenport's ass -- you may recall a certain NL East leader who had a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs, but somehow managed to blow it.

You can't really tell from this graph, but the combined chances of the two NL teams only add up to 48.9%. The two AL teams combine for 51.1% (they add up to 100% -- I checked!) which means I guess that we think the AL representatives are stronger than the NL reps. Which I guess shouldn't come as a surprise, given what we know about the relative strengths of the leagues.

I would also like to take this opportunity to thank both the Rockies and the Phillies. Phillies, your shoddy play in the NLDS helped us all forget about the Mets historical collapse. Thank you. And Rockies, your amazing 20-of-the-last-21 run is doing the same. Good work. Remember, nothing in September ever happened. Shhhh.