Mets Creep Back Towards Mediocrity

Well, my pledge to not watch the Mets for a week lasted all of one day.  Gar.  Anyway, Mets win a series against the division leaders, so I guess I should be happy.  Of course, if you have to rely on home runs from Endy Chavez and Luis Castillo, you're not going to win too many games.

But screw it; a win is a win.

Got a new article up at MetsGeek about Willie Randolph's atrocious bullpen management, too.  Apparently judging the impact of managers is all the sabermetric rage (Thanks, John).

Also, the 'Geeks jokingly switched the site to RaysGeek, so we could finally follow a winner.  Funny.  The Mets have since won two in a row, so I assume that it'll stay RaysGeek until the Mets lose.  A player on a streak has to respect the streak.

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Jeez, I Haven't Posted Over Here In A Long Time

So, if you're one of the three dudes who read this thing regularly, I've had a couple of new things up over at MetsGeek: one on Nelson Figueroa, and a new one on Mike Pelfrey.

The one on Pelfrey I actually really like. I got to look into some of the Pitch-F/X data that Josh Kalk's been putting up; I think that shit is fascinating. One of the things I didn't get to go into was the pitch/count information, especially when combined with the results from Pelfrey's splits on B-Ref. Like, nobody this year has swung at a 3-0 pitch from Pelfrey. Nobody. Or, on 3-1 pitches Pelfrey is allowing a 2.650 OPS. Glarg.

Anyway, I think that kind of stuff is really interesting. On the other hand, I also fill out spreadsheets for fun.

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More Pelfrey! Also, The Oxymoron At MetsGeek

Well done again, Mike.  What was most encouraging about tonight game for Pelfrey, just like last time, was the ratio of ground balls to fly balls: 12-4.  If Big Pelf can maintain that kind of ratio he's going to have a great year.  I can't remember the exact numbers for the various types of balls-in-play, but something like 80% of fly balls become outs; around 70% of ground balls turn into outs, while line drives only become outs around 25% of the time.  So why are ground balls good, if they're less likely to turn into an out than a fly ball?  Because fly balls that don't turn into outs are much more likely to turn into extra-base hits.  You can't hit a home run on a ground ball.

Well I mean you can (inside-the-park job) but it's extremely unlikely.

Anyway, I also got something up again over at MetsGeek, this time on the oxymoron Angel Pagan, who went 1-3 with a walk tonight.  Man, I am starting to get really thirsty.

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Jose Reyes And The Stolen Base

I got another one up at the 'Geek, this one on Jose Reyes and his stolen bases last year.  I started looking at his attempts per month data with the expectation that there would be no pattern, and that therefore Jose's slump in September was just a coincidence, bad timing.  I was kinda surprised to find out that there was an interesting pattern to his base running.  Turns out, in the month before his slump, Reyes doubled the rate at which the attempted to steal bases.  And for a month, he was successful.  But I think that the bill came due in September, and this led directly to his crappy finish.

Also, one minor correction: Reyes was closing in on the Mets single-season stolen base record, previously held by ol' Stone Hands himself.  God, I hated that guy.  Anyway, my bad.

Nothing Can Withstand The Withering Might Of My MetsGeek Posting!

Hung out with my old high-school pal Chopper the other night, who apparently reads this blog occasionally. Anyway, here's the link to my latest MetsGeek post; about Joe Smith, who throws from down under, which I'm sure you can appreciate.

MetsGeek, and Steroids

I got another instant classic up over at the MetsGeek.  There hasn't been a whole lot of action since the Santana signing, and I was kinda stuck for an idea.  I ended up writing something about Jim Bouton's baseball memoir Ball Four.  It's a great book, not just a great baseball book.  Anyway, it's been up for a day or two now and I got no comments, so either my analysis was so very, very insightful that no further comment was necessary; or else the 'Geek audience thought it was boring.  Oh well.  They can't all be winners.

Anyway, one thought about the current Roger Clemens kerfuffle.  Roger seems to be digging himself a deeper and deeper hole with each increasingly implausible denial, but refuses to admit what 95% of us believe already -- that he took steroids*.  His problem, and Barry's too, is that Roger is so used to winning that he can't concede that he's losing this battle, both in Congress and in the fans' hearts.  Someone so far out at the end of the talent curve -- and make no mistake, steroids or no, Roger Clemens was ridiculously talented -- is almost by definition crazy.

Less talented players, like Pettitte or Knoblauch might find it easier to admit when they're beat because their expectations for their own success are more realistic.

Anyway, if you read this, throw me some love in the comments over at MetsGeek, even if it's just to tell me how much I suck.  It makes me feel like somebody out there gives a shit.

*Steroids here meaning any and all illegal PEDs.

Another Post, You Handsome Devil

I had a new one up over at the 'Geek almost two weeks ago. I've kinda gotten off of my regular Thursday schedule. Not sure if this one's got the magic. There should be a new one up any day, too. Blargh.

Back In Town

I'm back in the borough on MLK Day (or Lee/Jackson/King Day, as they called it in VA when I grew up -- and you wonder why there are still race problems in this country). Anyway, another drop of pure gold is up for you all over at the 'Geek. This one about Carl of Gado.

Yet Another Classic Over At The 'Geek

This one's on the value of catcher defense, specifically if Brian Schneider's defense is good enough to make up for his crummy bat. Uncle Pants, you should be happy. Much smarter men than I concluded that catcher defense is statistically insignificant. Plus graphs!

Matt Wise

I got a new article up over at the 'Geek, this time about Matt Wise, the right-handed relief pitcher the Mets picked up this week. I'm not sure how I feel about this one, but I've been busy as fuck organizing M4K, and it's done and handed in on time, at any rate.

Speaking of Mustaches for Kids, this year's charity Mustache is almost gone. Technically speaking, the month-long growing period is over -- our 'Stache Bash was last Saturday. But if you haven't sent in your pledges yet (and you know who you are) it isn't too late -- you can donate here or here. Or just gimme a paper check made out to DonorsChoose.org. It's a really good cause.

By the way, regarding Matt Wise: the Mets traded Guillermo Mota to the Brewers for Johnny Estrada, then signed Brian Schneider and dumped Estrada. Then, after the Brewers had to non-tender Matt Wise because they signed Riske and Gagne (oh my!) the Mets picked Wise up for about $2 million less than Mota is going to cost in 2008. For those of you playing at home, the Mets effectively traded Guillermo Mota for Matt Wise, straight up, saving themselves $2 mil and probably getting a better pitcher in the bargain. Sweet.

My Articles Thus Far

Here's where you can find all of the MetsGeek articles I've written so far. I did one on how badly the Mets would miss having Tom Glavine (some, but not as much as you might think); one on whether or not Livan Hernandez was any good (no, no damn good); and one on whether Carlos Silva was any good (yes, with some reservations).

HJ, I hope you can understand these, and that they aren't too boring

I Am Now A Geek

A MetsGeek, that is. The analysis of the Mets late-season collapse you can read below earned me a spot as a staff writer at my favorite sabermetrically-inclined Mets site. Finally, I receive the recognition which I so richly deserve. Anyway, I'll continue to post over here, but I'll be writing over at the 'Geek every other Thursday. My latest article is up right now -- you should read it.